Remember the Sony Walkman? Around 30 years ago, leveraging the revolutionary Walkman, Sony established de facto ownership of portable music, and held that position for the better part of a decade. But, hardware commoditization, new media, new competing memory and digitalization formats, etc. eventually made Sony just another player in portable music (from a hardware perspective), and, today, an historical footnote hidden in the vast shadow cast by Apple. It's not that Sony didn't keep up with technology. Rather, Sony drank it's own Kool-Aid. Sony thought it could set and drive global standards. Sony missed market trends. Sony got arrogant.
And with that as context...
Nokia today announced that the vanguard Nokia N8 will be shipped in the third quarter of 2010. Less clunky and chunky than recent high-end Nokia devices - indeed, quite sleek (if a little boxy) in it's one-piece aluminum shell, and quintuple-banded covering both U.S. GSM carriers (unlike the unfortunate N900) - this little mobile computer is a true wonder.
But will it sell in the global market-making U.S.?
From a hardware perspective, the N8 is a marvel. We're talking a twelve megapixel camera, Xenon flash, HD quality video, on-board video-editing software (an example of geeks designing for geeks - I have a hard-time imagining the average consumer using this feature all that often, if at all), HDMI-out capability (very nice), 16gb on-board memory expandable via micro-SD, multi-touch capability, etc.
On the experience side, the N8 offers the full range of hygiene functionality expected of any higher-end mobile, from navigation to streaming/on demand internet video, integrated social networking (and quite elegantly on the homescreen), email, and, thank God, multitasking (better hurry up on that one Apple...). And, of course, the N8 is optimized for all of Nokia's Ovi services. And, related to that, Nokia is also launching a new software development platform to make it easier to build apps and deploy across Symbian and the Nokia-Intel Meego version of mobile Linux. The N8 is indeed a Symbian-based device, and the first to feature the new, enhanced Symbian^3 software (Symbian^3 doesn't quite roll off the tongue like Android does it?).
So there's the rub. Ovi? Symbian? Yes, there is no doubt that the N8, if it lives up to it's specs, will experience success in markets where Nokia has dominated in the past, where consumers and developers are accustomed to the Symbian experience and have actually heard of and perhaps consumed Ovi services, and otherwise hve a long-standing branded affinity for all things Nokia. But, in the U.S., with a reported unsubsidized price point around $500, I don't see this device getting a whit of traction outside the uber-geek segment without a major carrier agreement, subsidization, and significant (big-time) marketing support, and that includes pumping up Ovi as well. Let's hope Nokia can break through that carrier barrier which has eluded them for the last few years when it comes to higher-end devices.
Going back to my March 2, 2010 post, the N8 appears to reinforce what seems to be Nokia's global strategy of delivering global products to global markets, regardless of the fact that the U.S. market, specifically the carriers, have simply not warmed to such generic products, despite some awkward stabs at customization.
If the N8 had been built on Android, I'd be willing to bet it would have had ready carrier takers and promoters in the U.S. Indeed, as argued in that March 2 post, if Nokia were to have focused it's U.S. efforts towards developing products specifically for the all-important world-shaping market that is the United States, in addition to an Android-based N8-like product, it would have delivered a small suite of additional Android based devices to halo around it. The carriers would have welcomed this. Developers would have been thrilled. Motorola, which has bet the farm on Android, would have quaked. RIMM, which fears Nokia ever scaling up high-end devices in the U.S., would have trembled. Even the mighty Apple would have perceived the threat.
But no. Nokia has invested a great deal in mixing one very deep well of Kool-Aid and seems hell-bent on serving it up (meanwhile U.S. carriers and consumers moved on to Red Bull years ago). Don't get me wrong, I wish Nokia luck, and I believe the N8 will succeed in select Nokia-dominated markets (e.g. Europe and some Asian and Near and Middle Eastern markets), but not likely as well as Nokia iconic product once did, because while Nokia has been busy in recent years driving volume product to maintain market share, a whole new field of value product competitors (led by Apple) have gained a beachhead in Nokia's backyard, one they won't likely surrender easily.
As for the U.S., well, pray for a powerful carrier partner with major marketing muscle (AT&T) and the N8 could mark a revival of sorts for Nokia in the U.S. (maybe even enabling the mainstream discovery of Ovi). Without a carrier (or a major, multi-million dollar Nokia marketing and open-channel subsidization campaign - which would be way cool), however, the elegant and superbly-featured N8 may very likely be, indeed, DOA in the USA.
Later...
3 comments:
It's sad, but true, and it happens all the time. Look at Nokia's recent high-end phones - the N97, N900, N86, etc.
All have similar counterparts that were launch by U.S. carriers - HTC is usually the leading offender here, quickly getting all 4 of the major U.S. carriers to quickly sign up to carry their devices, while Nokia grovels for even the most basic handset positions.
LOl…10 yeas ago the USA was the global market-making environment. However, over the last 10 years the US has declined in its position. There are countries that still see the USA in the premiere role, but they are becoming fewer as the global nature of commerce becomes preeminent. There appears now to be a more cultural thrust to markets, based upon both income and need. Nokia’s policy is to create products for these different markets. What is an important product in the US is irrelevant in many countries. The real problem for Nokia is that by missing US market needs they are forgoing a large number of people with expendable incomes and accordingly additional profits. Isn’t globalisation and the much maligned new world order wonderful!
Re: Anonymous - You are correct to mention the foregoing of a large number of people and additional profits, which was perhaps implied but certainly not directly highlighted in my post. Thank you for that. And, I share your enthusiasm for globalization (however, I'll defer to you on who may be maligning what, but I've never been a fan of the "New World Order" expression - sound s bit too, uh, "Reich"-like). And, in that context, I believe, like you, that companies should think globally and act locally. And, yet further, you are correct yet again in noting the evolution of the U.S. in terms of its global prominence. But, you seem to have missed a couple of points. 1) The U.S. has indeed and in fact defined commercial Internet trends for two decades and, in an era of convergence, has usurped leadership in defining mobile trends as well over the last 5-10 years (this was a much discussed topic at this year's Mobile World Congress). 2) Marrying your point on how lucrative the U.S. market is with your point on creating products for different markets - that's exactly what I was saying in my post: Nokia should dedicate resources to building something that the U.S. market wants and then reap the market share, profits, and renewed brand perception. The tone and substance of your response implies you didn't really read my post for what it said, you just wrote from your gut to blast the U.S. and defend Nokia. I'm not worried about the former and share your hope for Nokia - so, please, why don't you actually read what I wrote, actually think about it, and then feel free to return and post something substantive and constructive.
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