So, Huawei (v2)...

I am no apologist for Huawei.

My tenure with the company damaged my reputation and career.

That aside, let’s face it, the company has proven itself unequipped to master its own global destiny, to own its own narrative.

Sure, Huawei will dominate China in terms of information communications technology (ICT).

And Africa.

Success in that latter market is almost certainly a result of collaboration with China’s government to develop and deploy the energy, transport, communications and financial infrastructure for the next generation source of low-cost labor.

(C’mon America, we used to do the same thing all over the planet, back when we had money and respect).

But, Huawei will be shunned elsewhere (well, maybe not their phones).

Why? 

Because America.

The American jihad to crucify the company is unjust and, ultimately, will result in terribly bad tidings for the U.S. ICT industry.

I’ve blogged for years about the hypocrisy of the American assault on the company, given that all ICT firms operate outside old-world geographic borders and are all equally subject to penetration and compromise.

The most recent Huawei development? The comical “criminal” investigation of the “Tappy” case that was settled in civil court years ago.

Did $100 billion dollar company Huawei really conspire to “steal” T-Mobile USA’s silly little robot technology that, literally “tapped” on cell phone screens to quality-test their functionality? 

Please.

Did Huawei screw up? 

Yeah, a couple of linear-minded engineers apparently “borrowed” the robot’s “finger” to determine why it produced results different than the Huawei robot finger.

Dumb. 

Crime of the century?  Hardly. 

Proof of Chinese theft of American “intellectual property?”  Oh for f*ck’s sake, of course not.  It’s a robot finger that taps on phone screens.  It ain’t rocket science.

So, what’s America doing?  And why?  I mean, it’s not like there’s a domestic industry to protect (sure, Cisco builds bits and pieces, but not full networks).

Is the U.S. so tight with Finland and Sweden that they need to nurture their ICT industries?  Nah.

So, WTF is going on?

Hard to tell, but, if I had to guess…

The Tappy case is just a momentum-builder. 

The early December detention of a Huawei executive (CFO Sabrina Meng) in Canada – and the more recent formal extradition request – have saturated the media, with daily updates, and as people have become numb to the Meng media overload, the Government needed to goose the Huawei witch-hunt again. 

Hence reviving the Tappy case.

The Government needs to keep the momentum hot because the next step, I believe, is almost certainly a conclusion to the two-plus year-old Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) investigation of Huawei’s purported illegal activities conducted through alleged shell partners in Iran ten years ago.

Timing is key.

The annual Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona is scheduled for the end of February.  MWC is the show to end all shows when it comes to the global wireless industry.

My guess (again): Between now and MWC, the U.S. will wrap up the BIS investigation with a negative finding and issue an order placing Huawei on the “Designated Entity” list, precluding U.S. companies from exporting to Huawei without license, requests for which can be expected to be denied.

In other words, if I’m right, they plan to humble and hobble Huawei going into the annual event in which many if not most major mobile industry deals are struck.

It’ll likely be a temporary measure, as it was with ZTE two years ago, but, again, timing is key, and it will hurt.

Or maybe I’m wrong…